Put half-a-dozen veteran oilmen in a room and they could have quite a debate about what trend has had the greatest impact on the oil and gas industry over the past 20 years.

The extreme highs and lows of the oil price that has spawned feast and famine? The periodic flurries of merger-mania that saw giant oil companies and contractors swell to behemoth size?

Or perhaps the evolution of deep-water technology that opened the door to enormous riches in the ‘golden triangle’ of the US Gulf, West Africa and Brazil?

What about the rise of liquefied natural gas projects that transformed the likes of Qatar and Australia into powerhouse gas exporters?

Or, more recently, the shale revolution — a bona fide game-changer —...