Shape of things to come: Shell's Fluminese FPSO
Analysts eye FPSO boom
The use of floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels and shuttle tankers is on the rise as oil and gas producers are increasingly venturing into deeper waters, a shipping analyst said today.
Deep-water oil and gas production is increasing as a percentage of total worldwide production and is expected to grow substantially during the next few years, Omar Nokta, a shipping analyst with Dahlman Rose investment bank told Reuters.
Shallow water reserves are dwindling and oil companies turning to deeper waters, where much of the undiscovered or undeveloped reserves lie, he said.
But the deep waters pose a challenge to constructing fixed oil platforms and pipelines, which are the preferred methods of oil transportation from offshore oil fields, and FPSOs are the solution to bypass deep subsea canyons and uneven terrains.
"We estimate 80-90 new development projects requiring floating solutions will come online during the next five years, of which 40-50 will require FPSOs," said Nokta.
Nokta said his bank was initiating coverage of the floating production sector with a strong outlook, particularly for FPSOs.
"There will be three projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and the real big one is Petrobras on the US side," he said.
Brazil's state-owned oil company Petrobras wants to be the first company to bring out a FPSO in the deep-water Gulf and is aiming for late 2009.
Besides a FPSO, the company is also looking for two 450,000-barrel shuttle tankers to delivery crude to the US Gulf Coast from the Chinook and Cascade fields.
With FPSO demand projected to be high, the supply is expected to tight due to limited number of new FPSOs on order and a busy shipyard schedule.
"We expect FPSO dayrates to increase significantly from historical norms," Nokta said.
"We believe companies that have secured yard slots for tanker conversion or newbuild construction are poised to benefit."