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LIVE

Tuesday, 14 October, 2008, 16:20 GMT | more prices >>

Horizon costs could hit $8.7bn

By Upstream staff

Canadian Natural Resources said today the costs of its Horizon oil sands project in Alberta could jump to as much as C$8.7 billion (US$8.703 billion), C$1.9 billion more than initial estimates, as severe cold at its northern Alberta project site hampered construction.

The company said construction at the site north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, was 90% complete and Horizon remained on track to open in August, as it decided to spend the additional cash in order to stick to the schedule.

"We are now estimating capital costs...to be approximately 25% to 28% over our original budget of C$6.8 billion," John Langille, Canadian Natural's vice chairman, said on a conference call.

This is the third time that Canadian Natural has raised its cost estimate for the 110,000-barrel per day project, which includes an oil sands mine and an upgrader to convert the tar-like bitumen stripped from sand into refinery-ready synthetic crude.

In October, the company expected costs to be as high as C$7.5 billion.

Even with the mounting costs, Canadian Natural said the final tab for the initial phase of Horizon will run to about C$80,000 per barrel of daily production, 20% less than the costs faced by rival oil sands mining projects.

"Despite the higher costs this is still a very robust project," Kyle Preston, an analyst at Salman Partners, told Reuters. "Comparing it to other projects this is one of the cheaper integrated mining projects. It still has very robust economics."

Canadian Natural said it expected its operations this year to generate cash flow of up to C$5.8 billion, up from an initial forecast in November of up to C$5.1 billion, amid higher than expected oil and natural gas prices.

The company said bitterly cold weather in northern Alberta slowed progress. Temperatures in the oil sands region were below -40 Celsius last month. "The last 10 percent of any project is the toughest and most labor intensive," said Steve Laut, Canadian Natural's president.

"In January and February we've had some periods of extreme cold, much colder than forecast. This has hurt progress, But outside of this cold weather we have seen a significant deterioration in labor productivity."

The spending on Horizon's initial phase includes some work and equipment for future planned expansions at the site that will boost output to 232,000 barrels per day.