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LIVE

Saturday, 30 August, 2008, 11:40 GMT | more prices >>

Total boss warns of Asia LNG drought

By Amanda Battersby

Asian liquefied natural gas customers could be faced with a combined annual supply shortfall of 43 million tonnes in 2015 - even if all the existing agreements become firm sales contracts, according to French giant Total.

That deficit could become even greater if there are delays to new liquefaction capacity or if existing contracts are not renewed, Total Trading International vice president LNG marketing North East Asia Yves Cerf-Mayer told the Gastech 2008 conference.

He said that there were not enough final investment decisions on LNG projects taken in the past two years to meet the projected demand growth in Asia from 2010 to 2015.

Regional LNG demand is forecast to increase by up to 6% during this period while China's demand alone will likely rise by up to 25%, Cerf-Mayer added.

The best hope for new volumes available to Asian customers in 2013 and 2014 comes from projects in Australia and Papua New Guinea, he said, provided that the final investment decisionsare taken without lengthy delays.

He said: "Australia will account for more than 60% of potential new Asia Pacific [liquefaction] capacity in the decade through to 2020."

Labour shortages and tight equipment supply remain as an ever-present threat to projects' schedules and budgets while costs, which have risen up to threefold since the beginning of the decade, are expected to continue their upward trend.

Liquefaction projects and expansions that are faced with delays include ones in Algeria, Iran, Australia and Nigeria.

Woodside's Pluto LNG and Angola LNG were the only projects that received a final investment decision last year, while Peru LNG was the only project to get the go-ahead in 2006.