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Voelte shoots down Oz LNG hopes

Australia's aim of tripling its liquefied natural gas output by 2020 is unattainable due to severe labour shortage and capacity constraints, Woodside Petroleum boss Don Voelte said today.

The country's commitment to the Kyoto Protocol and plans to introduce carbon emissions by 2010 may also undermine its ability to compete internationally in exports, including LNG, Voelte added.

"Australia hopes to triple LNG production to between 50 million and 60 million tonnes by 2020. That is impossible. It's not going to happen," Reuters quoted him telling a news conference at an oil and gas conference in Perth.

"You may have the best intentions but it's just very, very difficult to work in Australia because of the labour and skills shortage."

The Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA), the national petroleum industry lobby, has set a target of tripling its LNG production by the next decade.

But the uncertainty about the startup of various LNG projects in Australia was causing concerns for buyers in growing markets in China, Japan and South Korea.

"There are 14 projects and there are probably only three or four that are going to be built, so they are thinking: who should we be negotiating with," Voelte said.

Australia has two operating LNG projects producing about 15 million tonnes of LNG per annum. An expansion at the North West Shelf venture off Western Australia will raise total output to about 20 million tonnes in 2009.

There are at least 12 other planned LNG projects in Australia to meet surging Asian demand, including Chevron's 15 million tonnes per annum Gorgon project and Inpex Holding's 6 million tpa Ichthys project.

Facts Global Energy consultants forecast global LNG demand to rise to just under 400 million tpa in 2020, up from 172 million tpa in 2007.

At 112 million tonnes last year, Asian demand accounts for about two-thirds of global LNG consumption, and could grow to just above 200 mtpa in 2020.

But growing dependence on gas imports in the US and Europe will result in Western demand surpassing Asia's by as early as 2015, changing consumption patterns for the first time in 30 years, ExxonMobil said.

Voelte said Australia's stringent immigration policy was compounding its labour shortage. The lack of contractors in Australia was also contributing to the shortage of specialised equipment required for LNG projects.

Tough union laws and stringent environmental approvals process also make it difficult for operators to speed up their planned projects.

"It's pretty easy to build LNG plants in Qatar... but Australia is a pretty special place. This is an economically developed country that has very high standards of living and very high requirements for the workforce and for the communities," Voelte said.

A commodity boom is also drawing workers away from the oil and gas industry to the mining sector, Voelte said.

Woodside operates the A$20 billion (US$18.5 billion) North West Shelf venture, Australia's largest LNG project with current annual production capacity of 11.9 million tonnes, and 16.4 million tonnes by the end of the year.

Woodside is also constructing the $12 billion Pluto LNG project, which it aims to bring online by late 2009.

Asked which projects he thought would come onstream by 2020, Voelte said ExxonMobil's proposed LNG project at Papua New Guinea as well as Santos' Gladstone LNG project were "good projects" and that he hoped Chevron's Gorgon "would be finished by then".

"We should also have Pluto train 2 or train 3 by that time."

Voelte said Australia's plans to introduce carbon emissions could result in more expensive exports and adversely impact its resource-driven economy.

"I worry about Australia's export products and LNG as an export product," Voelte said. "Our competitors in Qatar, Nigeria, Indonesia and Malaysia, they are all not part of Kyoto and are certainly not having any plans to introduce carbon taxes."

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