Slowing down: Russian production
Russia sees oil output stalling
Russian oil output growth is unlikely to exceed 2.2% next year and will slow to under 1% by 2011, the government said today, confirming earlier forecasts of a slowdown in production growth.
Falling oil production in Russia has become a major concern for the government, which relies heavily on export revenues.
The Kremlin quoted the Economy Ministry's updated forecast for Russian economic development to 2011 as saying oil output could this year reach 492 million tonnes, or 9.85 million barrels per day, almost flat from 491.5 million tonnes, or 9.87 million bpd, in 2007. This year, a leap year, has one extra day.
Under the Economy Ministry's optimistic scenario, oil production is expected to rise to 503 million tonnes in 2009 but growth would then slow to just 0.8% year-on-year in 2011, reaching 518 million tonnes, a Reuters report said.
Last month, the Finance Ministry announced similar forecasts of oil production growth in the period.
The Economy Ministry's scenario forecasts no production growth at all.
"In the environment of a worsening structure and quality of explored reserves, and moving to the later stages of developing oil deposits in Western Siberia, the scenario provides that oil production will stabilise at a level of 497 million to 500 million tonnes per year in 2009-2011," the government said in a statement.
Russian oil production was down 1% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2008 after a 2.3% increase in 2007 and huge spikes in previous years, including a record 11% in 2003.
Analysts expect oil output growth to recover in the next decade after a number of new major deposits are launched in Eastern Siberia, which is rich in resources but lacks infrastructure.
Eastern Siberia is expected to compensate for falling output from mature fields in the traditional oil-producing region of Western Siberia.
