abce certificate
Tuesday, 02 December, 2008, 22:10 GMT | more >>

Sands projects ‘need oil prices over $100’



By Upstream staff 

New oil sands mine projects need crude prices to remain over $100 a barrel to turn a decent profit, analysts at UBS Securities said following Petro-Canada's announcement last week that costs for its planned Fort Hills project had soared by more than half.

Andrew Potter, an analyst at UBS, said rising costs have raised the bar for massive oil sands projects, as inflated costs for labour in particular, eat into owners' profits. That could force a number of projects in the region to be delayed, reworked or sold.

"Producers will have to defer projects to get a handle on costs," Potter said. "You'll probably also see more joint ventures with US refiners because that, in my view, is probably still a cheaper alternative to building an upgrader in Alberta. And you may see more bitumen-only projects go ahead ... and you will see some corporate consolidation."

Petro-Canada said on Wednesday that the price of its 140,000 barrel per day Fort Hills project had risen by at least 50% from a year earlier estimate to C$21 billion (US$20 billion), Reuters reported.

However, Potter estimates the project will cost at least C$25.3 billion, including initial design and management costs left out of Petro-Canada's forecast.

The oil sands contain an estimated 173 billion barrels of oil, a resource second in size only to Saudi Arabia's reserves. More than C$50 billion has already been spent to tap the resource and a further C$100 billion has been pledged to new projects.

Inflation has been the oil sands' hobgoblin, with the costs of some projects doubling as the price of steel and other materials has skyrocketed and companies find it difficult to find skilled labour pool in remote northern Alberta.

Where oil prices of $75 a barrel had been adequate to ensure a good profit, Potter said $100 a barrel is now likely needed to produce a 10% return.

Others estimates are even higher, with William Lacey, an analyst with FirstEnergy Capital, forecasting that the Fort Hills project will need crude at $115 a barrel.

Petro-Canada has a 60% share in Fort Hills, which includes an oil sands mine north of Fort McMurray, and an Edmonton-area upgrader to turn the mined bitumen into refinery-ready synthetic crude. UTS Energy Corp and Teck Cominco each hold 20% of the project, which would be the fifth major mining project in the region when completed in 2012.

A planned second phase would push output to 280,000 bpd by 2015.

Petro-Canada blamed the huge cost increase on rising materials prices, a tight labour supply and higher project management expenses.

Potter said rising construction costs may give an advantage to less labour-intensive thermal projects, where steam is pumped into wells to liquefy the tarry bitumen so it can flow to the surface.

"I would presume (thermal projects) will still see inflation but I don't think it's going to be as bad as on the mining side," Potter said.


Monday, 22 September, 2008, 06:05 GMT  | last updated: Monday, 22 September, 2008, 06:14 GMT

e-mail this article to a colleague


to email:  from:
comments: