Serious talk: from Fatih Birol
IEA exec sees oil's peak at 2020
Global oil output could peak by 2020 - much earlier than expected - amid a collapse in investment due to the financial crisis, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) chief economist Fatih Birol claimed.
In an interview published today Birol told London-based newspaper the Guardian that conventional crude output could plateau in 2020, a development that was "not good news" for a world still heavily dependent on petroleum.
The IEA has never before been specific about the point at which conventional oil would peak, although last month it said total crude output could peak in 2030.
Birol's comments follow other signs that the IEA is rapidly changing its view. In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline from the world's existing oilfields at 3.7%, only to admit 12 months later that the speed of the fall was more likely 6.7%.
