Gulf could see calmer storm season
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season will produce as many as 13 named storms, fewer than last year, while colder water in the Gulf of Mexico may ease the threat, WeatherBug predicted today.
WeatherBug, a private forecaster providing mobile and desktop applications, said the 1 June to 30 November season may produce six to eight hurricanes.
Last year, there were 16 named storms, eight of them hurricanes.
WeatherBug last year fell short in its outlook, forecasting 10 to 12 named storms, with four to six becoming hurricanes.
This year, spots of unusually cold water in the Gulf, home to more than a quarter of US oil production, are expected to damp storm development there, especially early in the season, said Mark Hoekzema, director of meteorological operations for WeatherBug, based in Germantown, Maryland.
“I wouldn’t say they are out of the woods, but there are some signs that it will be better than the last couple of years,” Hoekzema said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg. “The Gulf is the Gulf, though, and one storm can become a major storm pretty rapidly there.”
Three to four of the hurricanes should reach major strength, with winds greater than 111 miles per hour (178 kilometres per hour) on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, WeatherBug said.
Last year was the sixth most-active season, according to information compiled by Weather Underground of Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The most-active season was 2005, when 28 named storms formed.
A weakening of the La Nina effect in the Pacific is among the reasons there will be fewer storms than last year, Hoekzema said. La Nina is a cooling in the Pacific, which helps create the conditions necessary for storm development in the Atlantic.
He doesn’t think an El Nino, a patch of warm water in the Pacific, will develop. El Ninos tend to come with stronger upper atmosphere winds in the Atlantic that retard hurricane development.
WeatherBug’s predictions this year of 11 to 13 storms is close to the 13 storms AccuWeather.com forecast last month. In December, Colorado State University predicted 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes.
The Fort Collins, Colorado, school will update its forecast next week.