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IEA bumps up demand outlook
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has bumped up its forecasts for global oil demand on the back of the International Monetary Fund's brighter outlook and stronger economic data from Asia and the Americas.
In its monthly oil market report, released this morning, the IEA said it expects global oil demand to average 84.6 million barrels per day this year, an increase of 200,000 bpd on earlier estimates, while demand next year is expected to climb by 350,000 bpd to 86.1 million bpd.
The Paris-based agency said that global oil supply rose by 310,000 bpd in September, driven on the whole by growth in non-Opec output.
While the growth in supply was flat year-on-year, Opec production has risen in the course of the year, despite output curbs put in place to bolster prices.
In September, the group pumped and extra 120,000 bpd to hit 23.93 million bpd, with higher output from Nigheria, Angola and Venezuela accounting for the lion's share of the increase.
Crude output from the 11 Opec members with output targets, which excludes Iraq, rise by 170,000 barrels per day to 26.42 million bpd.
The IEA said that Opec is currently pumping at about 1.58 million bpd over its 24.84 million bpd target, indicating that the group's compliance rate has slipped from August's 66% to just 62% in September.
The group's spare capacity is now estimated at 5.45 million bpd, a slight dip on August's 5.47 million bpd.
The IEA added that output from non-Opec producers should continue to rise towards the end of the year.
The agency pegged non-Opec output at an average of 51 million bpd this year, rising to 51.6 million bpd next year.
It added that it expects non-Opec producers to add about 380,000 bpd of production this year and about 550,000 bpd next year.