Norwegian suppliers to offshore wind could bag up to an estimated €10 billion ($11.83 billion) in turnover out to 2050, with the oil and gas supply chain key to realising the gains.

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Reaching that amount will depend on how quickly companies can create value based on experience in the oil and gas sector, a report for the country's Ministry of Petroleum & Energy, its export credit agency and trade body Norwep said.

The authors of the report — Thema Consulting, Multiconsult and RCG Nordic — presented its findings at the High Wind 2020 conference in Norwegian oil hub Stavanger on Wednesday.

Oil and gas supply chain 'well placed'

“The report shows that Norwegian supplier companies with experience and expertise from the oil and gas business and the maritime industry are well placed to succeed in the ever-growing global offshore wind market,” Petroleum & Energy Minister Tina Bru said.

“For the government, it is important to ensure that we have good support schemes and framework conditions that make the energy industry competitive internationally.”

How quickly can oil suppliers adapt?

The offshore wind sector could become one of Norway’s most important industries as many countries are investing in wind at sea amid increasingly clear climate policies with the phasing out of fossil power production, the report finds.

The report presents three possible scenarios.

In a “slow progression scenario,” an annual turnover of €3 billion is estimated towards 2050; in a “base case scenario” a turnover of €7 billion, and one of €10 billion in an “accelerated growth scenario”.

The report considers the “base case scenario” to be the most likely, but the authors said it depends on arrangements being made for the oil and gas supplier industry to adapt and develop technology and services that the international offshore wind industry demands.

“We are convinced that Norwegian industry is able to apply expertise and experience developed over many years in the offshore and maritime industry to deliver products and services adapted to the needs of the offshore wind market, both within the bottom-fixed and the floating segment,” said says Jon Dugstad, director of wind and solar at Norwep.

“We ourselves have an expectation that Norwegian companies will deliver goods and services to the offshore wind market for NKr50 billion ($5.43 billion) annually already by 2030.”

(This article first appeared in Upstream's sister renewable energy publication Recharge on 5 November, 2020.)