Russian independent Novatek is moving fast with Arctic LNG 2, its second liquefied natural gas project in the country’s Arctic region, betting against the odds that the global LNG supply glut will dissolve by 2023, when the project starts up.

In its latest strategy presentation, Novatek says the LNG oversupply is quickly fading, with an expected supply deficit emerging in the mid-2020’s or possibly earlier.

Novatek’s anticipation is a strong bet against more pessimistic projections.

The International Energy Agency forecasts annual global LNG production of 650 billion cubic metres of gas will exceed world demand of 460 Bcm in 2022.