The conversation around future gas demand in Europe has so far focused on providing short-term forecasts, as a multitude of moving political parts have made it difficult to do anything but guess longer-term.

This, however, has not deterred gas sellers from eyeing Europe for their future supplies.

Only this week, at a conference in Vienna, producers were debating what ratio of natural gas versus liquefied natural gas Europe might have in its future energy mix.

Now, it's true that across Europe, gas production is falling much faster than previously expected, with the giant Groningen field in the Netherlands set to shut by 2030 and output from other major producing fields in the region entering natural decline.

In addition, across the European Union, targets to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have meant a widening of the gap between what Europe produces and its demand for energy. This has led to increases in gas imports and an expectation that this demand will continue to grow.

However, with pipelines being built to supply Russian and Caspian gas to Europe, and analysts forecasting that projects totalling around 100 million tonnes per annum of LNG will be announcing final investment decision in the year ahead and 2020, we have to wonder what longer term implications this will have.

LNG producers are now calling Europe a new “destination market”, which is great for competition, as European buyers could potentially be spoiled with options. But how much will this market, which also wants to be carbon neutral by 2050, actually need?

If analyst are correct, Europe’s demand for gas is growing for now because local production is falling. However, growth in demand beyond what is needed to replace the decline is not rising as much or as fast as some might expect.

In the race to supply Europe, gas players might want to remember to check very carefully what the demand for their projects will be.

With Asian demand falling, the risk of having too much gas around might be greater than some fear.