The EIA's latest outlook, released Tuesday, expects average production to fall from 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015 to 8.7 million bpd in 2016. The agency's July report had predicted average oil output of 8.6 million bpd.

"The forecast reflects declining Lower 48 onshore production that is partly offset by growing production in the federal Gulf of Mexico," according to the most recent report.