The recent start-up of Inpex’s Ichthys liquefied natural gas project in Australia is set to see the country overtake Qatar as the leading exporter of LNG, according to EnergyQuest.

Australian LNG exports totalled 6.4 million tonnes in October, up 10.3% on the 5.8 million tonnes shipped in September, which EnergyQuest attributed, in part, to the start-up of Ichthys which shipped its first LNG cargo on 22 October.

EnergyQuest chief executive Graeme Bethune noted that October’s shipments equated to 76 million tonnes per annum on an annualised basis, with Ichthys still ramping up and Shell’s Prelude floating LNG project yet to start.

“As Ichthys ramps up production in coming months we expect Australia’s annualised production rate to overtake Qatar’s nominal capacity of 77 million tpa, making us the world’s biggest exporter,” he added.

“Latest reports are for a further three Ichthys cargoes to load in November from the Darwin plant to be sold on the spot market.”

Bethune also noted that strong performance from other LNG projects in Western Australia had helped offset lower shipments from the nation’s east coast projects, compared to September.

He added the fall in east coast shipments came after producers there agreed to offer any uncontracted gas to the domestic market in the event of any shortfall.

Bethune also highlighted that China’s demand for LNG was continuing to rise, overtaking Japan as the world’s largest importer of LNG in April this year and importing 26% more LNG in September this year than in 2017.

Australia remains the largest supplier of LNG to China, accounting for 43% of the country’s imports in September.

According to Bethune, Chinese LNG imports from the US have slumped however, dropping from 500,000 tonnes in January to only 100,000 tonnes in September.

“This reflects the China-US trade war, plus record LNG shipping costs, particularly charter rates, which disadvantage longer distance transport,” he added.

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