Natural gas production across five shale plays in the US is forecast to drop in March and drag down overall output total as operators battle low natural gas prices, according to a monthly report from the US Energy Information Administration.

Output from the Appalachia basin, the top contributor of shale gas in the nation, is expected to decline by 220 million cubic feet per day, the largest drop out of seven unconventional plays tracked by the EIA. The Anadarko basin in the state of Oklahoma has the second-largest decline with a drop of 140 million cfd.

Meanwhile, output from the prolific Permian basin, where gas is associated with oil production, is expected to grow 198 million cfd from February to March. Production from the gassy Haynesville play is also expected to grow by 34 million cfd.

However, the anticipated gains are not enough to outweigh the losses, and overall the seven shale plays will see a natural gas production drop of 172 million cfd.

The EIA recently said that US natural gas prices in 2020 will trend lower than previously expected, predicting a Henry Hub spot price average of $2.21 per million British thermal units. The forecast was initially at $2.33 per million Btu a month prior to the EIA's revision. The Henry Hub spot price averaged only $2.02 per million Btu in January 2020, and has since dropped to $1.85 per million Btu this week, according to the EIA.

On the other hand, crude oil production is anticipated to increase by about 18,000 barrels per day, driven by gains in the prolific Permian basin. The Permian is forecast to add about 39,000 bpd in March, as the EIA expects no output changes to plays like the Eagle Ford and the Haynesville.

However, the Anadarko, Niobrara, and Bakken plays will all see decreases of about 10,000 bpd, 8000 bpd, and 2000 bpd, respectively.

Production

EIA: Shale natural gas output to fall in March