Global oil demand is likely to top 100 million barrels per day by the end of this decade, despite the coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing energy transition, according to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) chief executive Sultan Ahmed al Jaber.


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Speaking at the inaugural session of the Adipec 2020 virtual conference, Jaber said: “We expect oil demand to rise to 105 million bpd by 2030 and would continue to supply half of world energy for decades to come."

'Fundamentals intact'

Jaber added that, while oil demand could continue to fluctuate over the next few months, “the long-term fundamentals of the industry remain intact".

“For a start, we know the world will still need oil and gas when all of this is done. Even at the height of the lockdowns of March and April the world still consumed 75 million bpd of oil,” he said.

Speaking at the same event, Russia's Deputy Minister of Energy Pavel Sorokin also stressed that crude demand would continue to increase over the long term.

“We see demand would continue to grow for the next 10 to 15 years, but it will take another two to three years to come back to 100 million bpd,” he said.

Sorokin said that the “era of oil is not over yet”, claiming hydrocarbons offer the most competitive source of energy.

Barkindo spies 2021 recovery

Global oil demand is set to plummet this year by close to 9.8 million bpd due to the coronavirus outbreak, Opec secretary general Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo said on the opening day of the Adipec conference, normally an in-person event held every year in Abu Dhabi.

However, Barkindo expects that 2021 will be a year of recovery, with demand expected to go up at least by 6.5 million bpd.

Global crude demand is expected to be near 90 million bpd this year, according to a recent report by Opec, but more clarity is likely to emerge by the end of this year.

Lower-carbon future

Jaber stressed, however, the need for a low-carbon future for the oil and industry once the coronavirus pandemic subsides.

“We know that when the Covid pandemic fades into memory the world will still need oil and gas and will want that oil and gas to be as low-carbon as possible,” he said.

Over the next 10 years, Adnoc plans to "reduce greenhouse gas intensity by a further 25% and expand its "carbon capture programme so that it stores 5 million tonnes of CO2 every single year," Jaber said.