Brazil's federal pre-salt entity PPSA estimates that output from the 17 production sharing contracts signed so far in the country's prolific carbonate play could reach close to 4 million barrels per day of oil by 2032.

PPSA, which oversees all PSCs in the pre-salt province, projects investments of about 560 billion reais ($132.6 billion) and the deployment of as many as 28 floating production, storage and offloading vessels to achieve production of 3.89 million bpd.

The numbers include results from the latest two pre-salt rounds, in which Petrobras acquired production sharing rights for the Aram area and surplus volumes in the Buzios and Itapu fields, but takes out of the equation output from existing concession contracts.

“We estimate production in Brazil will continue to rise in the years to come, mainly from our pre-salt reservoirs, turning the country into one of the five largest oil producers in the world next decade,” Brazil’s Mines & Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque told a PPSA-hosted technical forum.

The PPSA study takes into account FPSOs varying in size from 50,000 bpd to 220,000 bpd, depending on the project to be implemented, output per well of 20,000 bpd on average and oil prices at $60 per barrel.

While PPSA did not provide a breakdown of which projects will enter operation, the bulk of new FPSOs are expected to produce from the giant Mero and Buzios fields.

Petrobras exploration and production director Carlos Alberto Pereira de Oliveira said in a recent conference call with investors that the company plans to install another five FPSOs on Buzios to produce from its surplus volumes.

Oliveira added this week that he expects to sign by December 2020 a key co-participation agreement with new partners China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China National Oil & Gas Exploration & Development Corporation (CNODC) regarding Buzios.

CNOOC and CNODC each acquired 5% working interests to gain access to surplus volumes in Buzios, but the two companies need first to reach a deal regarding payments for exploration and production costs incurred to date by Petrobras in the field.

According to Oliveira, Petrobras and the Chinese companies have until October 2021 to sign a co-participation agreement, otherwise CNOOC and CNODC will be entitled to leave the consortium.

Of the 28 floaters forecast to go on stream between 2021 and 2030 on PSCs, Petrobras has already chartered the Guanabara and Sepetiba FPSOs for the Mero-1 and Mero-2 developments, and is presently tendering for the Mero-3 unit.

The Brazilian government intends to host a pair of new pre-salt auctions in 2020 and 2021. The seventh round will feature the Agata, Agua-Marinha and Esmeralda areas, while the eighth round will include the Ametista, Jade, Tupinamba and Turmalina areas.

Production

Output boon on horizon for Brazil's pre-salt