Efforts by US President Donald Trump's administration to roll back environmental rules in order to boost domestic energy production could lead to a reversal of the progress made in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The report noted that the so-called shale revolution has made the US the world's top oil and gas producer as well as a major energy exporter, with the current administration expounding an agenda of "energy dominance" to maximise energy production and benefit from increased exports.
To this end, the administration has rescinded a host of environmental rules, including those governing methane emissions at oil and gas sites, and pulled out of the Paris Agreement.
"Still, US carbon dioxide emissions have fallen across all sectors — notably the power sector — in the past decade," the report said.
"While emissions are expected to continue to decline over the coming decade, there remains a risk that, over time, the trend will reverse as nuclear retirements, continued use of coal-fired generation and increased consumption of oil for transportation — coupled with less stringent emissions regulations — offset gains from the move towards natural gas and renewables for electricity generation."
In any case, the impact to global markets from the shale boom cannot be denied, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said as he presented the report alongside US Energy Secretary Rick Perry last week.
"Since the last in-depth review five years ago, the United States has reshaped energy markets both domestically and around the world," Birol said.
"In this context, the IEA commends the lifting of the US ban on crude oil exports as well as efforts to streamline regulatory approvals for (liquefied natural gas) exports, which have helped bolster global energy security by diversifying supply options for importers."
The US lifted its crude export ban at the end of 2015 during the administration of president Barack Obama.
The report also noted that future production growth and exports will depend heavily on the the buildout of pipelines to help new oil and gas production access markets. Currently, new takeaway is badly needed in the prolific Permian basin, where a production glut has caused local commodity prices to crater.
"Though the government has made efforts to streamline federal licensing for energy infrastructure (including rapid approval of projects such as the Keystone XL oil pipeline), there remain cases of midstream infrastructure struggling to keep pace with shale production growth due to permitting setbacks, local opposition and court challenges," said the IEA report.
"Timely siting of gas pipelines will also benefit efforts to reduce associated gas flaring rates from oil production."
Consultancy Rystad Energy recently said US shale supply will peak at approximately 14.5 million barrels per day around 2030.
"In the past decade, crude oil coming from shale patches such as the Permian in the US has grown from a negligible contributor to an upstream behemoth, reshaping the industry and the oil market," Rystad said in its report.
