US response to Saudi attacks a blow for moderates

Just before the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities on 14 September, Iran had its best chance of galvanising international support to persuade US President Donald Trump to end unprecedented sanctions against Tehran.

Earlier low-key attacks against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and Saudi targets, including drone strikes on the Shaybah field and pipelines inside the kingdom, highlighted dangers to the whole region from the war in Yemen and the US sanctions.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the drone attacks, while Iran tacitly acknowledged its direct involvement in the tanker attacks.

The events helped to force a change in the attitude of Persian Gulf states towards Iran, with the United Arab Emirates sending a peace mission to Tehran in July and reducing its military presence in Yemen in a blow to the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis.

At the same time, concerns over the safety of international shipping prompted European powers, especially France, to try to arrange a summit between the US and Iranian presidents to help chart a course out of the dangerous cycle of events.

Trump assured French President Emmanuel Macron that he was open to a meeting with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, who also responded positively.

Rouhani was, however, quickly shouted down by hardliners led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has ruled out direct talks with Washington.

Then came the devastating attacks against the Abqaiq and Khurais facilities, which initially shut down 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi oil production.

The attacks vividly exposed the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, prompting them to ask the US for troops and air defence equipment.

Trump responded by imposing fresher harsh sanctions and ruling out any early meeting with Rouhani.

The outcome is a victory for Iranian hardliners who see any rapprochement with the US as anathema, but is a blow to the moderates who would ultimately like to mend fences with the west and allow Iran to tap its enormous oil and gas potential.