Yet there appears to be general agreement that 2016 could be a year of recovery, albeit a rocky one. Analysts point to some trends — dwindling supply from the US, millions of barrels per day of liquids production deferred, stable if not spectacular global demand — to support predictions of a price rebound this year.

“Fourth quarter, $80 oil. You can quote me on it,” George O’Leary, of Tudor Pickering Holt, told an audience in Houston recently, reaffirming the company’s stance after cautioning that most of 2016 would be “painful”.

That