BP weeks away from picking concept for next phase of major African project
Supermajor is targeting final investment decision in 2023 and first production as early as 2026 at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim
BP is within weeks of selecting the development solution for phase two of its Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project offshore northwest Africa, with first production targeted by the end of 2026 at the earliest.
Located off Senegal and Mauritania, GTA phase one is due on stream in late 2023 via deep-water subsea wells linked to a shallow-water floating production, storage and offloading vessel that will remove liquids and send gas to a 2.5 million tonnes per annum floating liquefied natural gas vessel moored behind a breakwater that also protects a jetty plus utilities and living quarters platforms.
The decision-making process on phase two has been heavily influenced by Covid-19, supply chain issues and the impact on the gas market of the war in Ukraine.
GTA partner Kosmos Energy previously suggested the final investment decision could emerge in 2022.
However, that timeline is off the agenda because front-end engineering and design work — which can last six to 12 months and is the immediate precursor to any project being sanctioned — can only start once the development concept has been chosen.
Kosmos chief executive Andy Inglis told analysts on Monday that “a development decision is now planned for the end of the third quarter”.
Assuming a development concept is chosen by the end of next month, FEED studies could then begin ahead of the final investment decision in 2023, leading to a first gas date at the end of 2026 or in early 2027, said Inglis.
KBR has been carrying out pre-FEED studies on GTA’s future phases so would also be expected to handle FEED work.
“Given the structural changes to the global gas markets we have seen in recent months, we are working with the operator and the governments to ensure we have the right development concept… with regards to scope and scale,” he said.
“A lot happened in the last six months with regard to the LNG market, in particular the European market, and it’s important that we’ve got the right project that enables us to fully access that opportunity.
“We are working to optimise the development scheme to best utilise the existing phase one infrastructure to maximise cash flow and returns.”
One issue at the heart of phase two decisions, explained Inglis, is that the partners want to manage their “cost exposure to supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures that we are seeing across the industry”.
He noted that in GTA phase one “there have been quality issues with the fabrication of some of the subsea equipment, which will require repairs”.
The GTA asset holds about 15 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, enough to support LNG facilities with a total capacity of 10 million tpa, including the 2.5 million tpa first phase.
At this stage, it is unclear what the capacity of this second phase will be, but there is a possibility it could be another 2.5 million tpa scheme, while a further phase would aim to produce 5 million tpa.
In 2020, BP was looking at phase two and a follow-on phase three, each producing about 3.7 million tpa of LNG.
One source who has been closely tracking the project over recent years said that BP has been considering multiple liquefaction solutions for phase two including converted and newbuild FLNG concepts, and facilities installed on a concrete or steel gravity-based structure.
Other sources previously told Upstream that an onshore LNG option was considered.
However, an onshore solution has previously been ruled out because no location could be found that supports the concept of parity between Senegal and Mauritania, each of which shares the gas resource.
Such a proposal would also have significant environmental impacts and impose constraints on costs and schedules compared to alternative concepts.
A converted FLNG solution could be the front-running choice because BP has an option under its contract with Golar LNG — which is providing the phase one FLNG vessel — to order a second vessel from the Oslo-headquartered company.
In addition to new liquefaction capacity, phase two would need additional subsea wells and for the FPSO’s gas handling capacity to be increased.
As well as BP and Kosmos, the partners in GTA are Mauritania’s state oil company SMHPM and Petrosen, the state oil company of Senegal.
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