Voters in Mali head to the ballot box this week for a run-off to decide between incumbent head of state Ibrahim Boubacar Keita and his opponent Soumaila Cisse, after July's presidential elections failed to yield a clear victor with violence affecting a fifth of polling stations.

The two squared off in 2013 with Keita, nicknamed by supporters Kankeletegui or ‘man of his word’ in the Bambara vernacular, winning 78% of votes cast after promising to clamp down on Islamist insurgents and rebel Tuareg militia.

However, violence escalated despite the deployment of French troops, while in the north, two indigenous terror groups merged last year with Al-Qaeda to form a unified force led by Tuareg warlord Iyad Ag Ghali.

The risk is that strengthened terror groups could strike out into the southwest, Mauritania, Niger and even Senegal, where a trial concluded last month of 29 locals accused of setting up a network in Casamance.

At risk in Niger is ongoing upstream investment by China and France. In Senegal the stakes are also rising, with some $6 billion and $16.2 billion earmarked respectively for Cairn Energy’s SNE field and the BP and Kosmos-operated Greater Tortue development straddling the Mauritanian maritime border.

Senegal represents “the jackpot, a luxury target for terrorists”, says Bakary Sambe, director of the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute, which tracks Salafist-Jihadist propaganda.

Just last year, Ag Ghali warned Senegal was on his priority list, waiting for attention.

Last month's fatal attack on a joint patrol of French and Malian soldiers is the latest of several against the G5 Sahel Africa Force combining troops from Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad.

It was a clear warning to French President Emmanuel Macron — and European Union leaders — who seek to upgrade assistance to speed deployment of some 5000 G5 soldiers.

France desperately needs a well-financed alternative to lift the peacekeeping burden from its own Operation Barkhane, currently some 4000 troops, but international paymasters seem unwilling to commit in the long-term. This has to change.

Weekly

Mali goes to the polls amid rising violence