Approval of the $30 billion Rovuma liquefied natural gas project before Mozambique’s presidential poll takes place on 15 October is unlikely to harm the prospects of head of state Felipe Nyusi securing a second term in office, writes Iain Esau.

Having already overseen a final investment decision on Anadarko Petroleum’s $25 billion Mozambique LNG project, approving the Rovuma scheme under Nyusi’s tenure would reflect well on the president and his ruling party, the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo).

His main challenger is expected to be Ossufu Momade, head of the main opposition party Renamo, who replaced long-time leader Afonso Dhlaklama who died last year.

A few weeks ago, Momade and Nyusi shook hands after signing a peace deal that — at the third time of asking — aims to end armed hostilities between two parties that have been at loggerheads since the country’s civil war erupted in 1977.

A month earlier, reflecting the importance attached to maintaining a lasting peace in the gas-rich country, the United Nations Secretary General appointed Swiss diplomat Mirko Manzoni as his personal envoy for Mozambique to help ensure October’s elections proceed smoothly.

However, Renamo has split into factions and this week, the self-proclaimed Mozambican National Resistance Military Junta (MNRMJ), headed by General Mariano Nhongo, accused Momade of collaborating with Frelimo and renounced the peace deal.

A spokesman for MNRMJ, in effect Renamo's military wing, said: “The government must negotiate with Renamo, because Renamo is us, the military who have the weapons."

Alex Vines, head of the Africa Programme at UK-based policy institute Chatham House, remarked in a report this month that a lasting peace agreement is clearly in the national interest.

“It would mean that a new Mozambican government formed after the national elections can focus on gas industry development, improving services, poverty reduction and combating new security challenges, such as growing violent Islamic radicalism in Cabo Delgado,” Vines said.

US geopolitical consultancy Stratfor said this week the insurgency in the far north now poses a greater threat because of its proximity to liquefied natural gas projects.

“If Mozambique doesn't get its far north under control, insurgents' increasingly brazen and sophisticated tactics could damage the massive financial windfall poised to fill the government's coffers in the years ahead by prompting energy firms to take their operations and their investments elsewhere,” Stratfor warned.

Weekly

Nyusi stands to benefit from gas projects but lasting peace needed