Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is seeking a second term in this month’s election, which he is expected to win by a landslide in the absence of any serious contender, writes Nassir Shirkhani.

Such a victory will be welcomed by those seeking the continuation of a relatively stable period in Egypt that has seen heavy upstream investment, especially in gas production, but human rights groups are strongly critical.

Potential rivals have been jailed, sidelined or threatened with prosecution to ensure a smooth victory for the former army chief. There has also been a crackdown on any criticism in the press.

The vote narrowly avoided becoming a one-man race after a single candidate, Mousa Mustafa Mousa, showed up as the only challenger at the last minute.

Mousa leads the Ghad party, which had endorsed Sisi for a second term and even organised events to help nominate the president for a new term in office.

Five other candidates, including a former prime minister, a human rights lawyer and a military colonel, have all dropped out of the race after arrests or harassment.

Several leading opposition figures have called for a boycott, citing his crackdown on civil liberties and alleged human rights violations.

Sisi was elected in 2014, a year after leading the army to oust Islamist president Mohamed El-Morsi who has since been jailed.

Sisi is now assured of victory in the March election, the third since protests in 2011 unseated long-time ruler Hosni Mubarak.

Sisi’s rule has brought some stability to Egypt but critics say his popularity has been eroded by tough economic reforms that have hit people’s livelihood hard and by a crackdown on dissidents.

His supporters argue the measures are needed to keep the country stable as it faces security challenges including attacks by so-called Islamic State militants in the North Sinai region.

Sisi’s tenure, though, has seen a flowering of the hydrocarbon sector in Egypt thanks to measures to tackle debt to international oil companies, reduce energy subsidies and implement mega offshore gas developments by offering improved commercial terms.

The presidential vote will be held on 26 to 28 March, with a run-off vote on 24 to 26 April if no candidate wins more than 50% in the first round.

Sisi has listed achievements during his first term, including a nascent financial recovery after years of political turmoil and economic instability.

Egypt began implementing an International Monetary Fund (IMF) reform programme in November 2016.

The IMF made a deal to provide Egypt with a $12 billion loan in exchange for wide-ranging structural economic reforms.

The reforms include measures such as devaluing the local pound currency, loosening capital controls, ending energy subsidies and overhauling monetary policy.

The reforms are aimed at restoring economic stability and long-term growth.

The first step the IMF recommended was the flotation of the pound, a step taken in November 2016. The following year, Egypt slashed parts of its fuel subsidies, resulting in a 60% surge in fuel prices.

The IMF has since recommended that the government continue removing subsidies on energy in a bid to discourage consumption and save money on costly fuel imports.

Egypt, which owes international oil companies an estimated $2.4 billion, has pledged to eliminate the arrears by the end of June 2019 and to not accumulate any further debts.

The arrears had stood at over $6 billion in the aftermath of the 2011 revolution, which led to severe cuts in spending by international players amid lack of regular payments while encouraging energy consumption thanks to almost give-away fuel prices.

Sisi is expected to retain Prime Minister Sherif Ismail, a former oilman, who has helped transform Egypt into a vibrant upstream destination.

Ismail has relied on Oil Minister Tarek El-Molla to embark on reforms in the energy sector with the goal of luring increased investment to the offshore sector and positioning Egypt to become a regional gas hub by facilitating gas imports from neighbouring countries.

Molla is also likely to keep his post to ensure the continued rival of the hydrocarbon sector.

Weekly

Sisi faces little poll opposition, with Ismail likely to stay as PM