Somalia could possibly become an African E&P hotspot if it meets an ambitious first-oil target of 2027. That would finally lay to rest all those tall tales of a dysfunctional, corrupt and fragile state unable to govern, let alone administer, a viable licensing regime.

Three decades after the civil war stopped play, the unelected Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is touting a new Petroleum Law & Revenue Sharing Agreement, offering 15 offshore blocks beyond those old legacy awards to Shell and ExxonMobil which remain in force majeure.

A raft of seismic data shot by UK players Soma Oil & Gas and Spectrum Geo promises a 30-billion barrel play for intrepid suitors in the country’s first licensing round, which is due to close on 7 November.

But Somalia is not for the faint-hearted. Blocks off autonomous Puntland and Somaliland were held back from the acreage offering, as were blocks off Jubbaland.

Kenya is kicking up a diplomatic storm over a disputed wedge of deep ocean and this week won a stay of execution at the International Court of Justice, where it will likely lose its case when judges reconvene. This quarrel does not bode well for industry.

Also, with questions looming over regulation, insurance and the law of the sea, Petroleum Minister Abdirashid Mohamed Ahmed is right to confine ambitions to FGS jurisdiction, even as other Somali states challenge his writ.

President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s government is unstable and did poorly in the latest Transparency International listing, while his heavily tribalised armed forces are barely operational.

Adding to the turmoil, Mogadishu now claims the island of Socotra, close to the Somali Horn but traditionally part of Yemen, and now acting as a forward base for Emirati forces to launch attacks in Yemen.

ExxonMobil and Shell may have paid surface rentals but stopped short of endorsing a regime that is neither de facto nor de jure able to deliver on policy.

Most regard this licensing imperative as premature, a bit of a chimera. Suitors should at least wait till a new federal constitution is ratified and the dust settles.